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- Market & Momentum - 12/22/2025
Market & Momentum - 12/22/2025
Holiday staffing gaps meet identity abuse, exposed edge services, and firmware-level blind spots. This week’s risk isn’t sophistication; it’s unattended trust.
J.W. Croley
December 22, 2025
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Over the past 72 hours, attackers have leaned into low-friction access paths that bypass traditional controls. Researchers observed widespread OAuth device-code phishing enabling Microsoft 365 account takeover without stealing MFA secrets, Fortinet disclosed authentication bypass flaws in FortiCloud SSO, WatchGuard confirmed active exploitation of Firebox firewall RCE, CERT warned of pre-boot UEFI DMA weaknesses impacting common motherboard vendors, and breach fallout from the University of Phoenix disclosure is expected to fuel fraud and phishing campaigns.
Different attack surfaces, same core failure mode: trusted access paths abused while monitoring and patch cadence slows for the holidays.
Trend (Macro) | Global Likelihood | Direction | What to expect this week |
|---|---|---|---|
Identity takeover via OAuth / device-code flows | 72% | 🔺 Rising | Attackers bypass MFA by abusing legitimate authorization workflows instead of credentials. |
Edge exposure & auth bypass (SSO / VPN platforms) | 68% | 🔺 Rising | Publicly reachable identity and access services are being mass-scanned and opportunistically hit. |
Rapid RCE exploitation of security appliances | 63% | 🔺 Rising | Firewalls and edge devices remain “patch-or-perish” targets with short exploit windows. |
Firmware & pre-boot attack awareness | 49% | ➡ Stable | Not mass exploitation, but high-impact risk for privileged and executive endpoints. |
Breach fallout → secondary phishing & fraud | 61% | 🔺 Rising | Large breach disclosures reliably generate impersonation and credential-stuffing waves. |
OAuth device-code phishing enables Microsoft 365 account takeover
Proofpoint documents multiple campaigns abusing the OAuth device authorization flow to gain persistent access without harvesting MFA codes.Fortinet discloses FortiCloud SSO authentication bypass vulnerabilities
Fortinet PSIRT advisory covering SAML/SSO auth bypass conditions, affected versions, and remediation guidance.WatchGuard confirms active exploitation of Firebox firewall RCE (CVE-2025-14733)
Vendor advisory detailing impact, exploitation status, and urgent patch requirements for Firebox appliances.CERT warns of UEFI DMA weakness enabling pre-boot attacks
CERT/CC analysis explains how improper IOMMU initialization allows attackers with physical or privileged access to bypass OS-level protections.University of Phoenix breach exposes data of ~3.5 million people
Independent reporting on breach scope and expected downstream fraud and phishing activity.
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Identity is the primary perimeter again
OAuth and consent flows are now attack surfaces — if app permissions aren’t controlled, MFA becomes irrelevant.
Edge services are treated as loot boxes
Attackers assume patch lag on SSO, VPN, and firewall infrastructure — and they’re often right.
Firmware risk is asymmetric
UEFI flaws won’t hit everyone, but when they hit the right devices (admins, execs, jump hosts), detection is extremely difficult.
Breach disclosures are the starting gun
The real damage comes weeks later via impersonation, fraud, and account takeover fueled by leaked data.
Lock down OAuth abuse
Audit Microsoft Entra / Azure OAuth app registrations and consent grants.
Restrict or monitor device-code flows; alert on anomalous token usage.
Reduce edge exposure
Review FortiCloud SSO configurations and apply vendor mitigations immediately.
Remove unnecessary public access to identity and management interfaces.
Patch security appliances first
Apply WatchGuard Firebox fixes now; restrict admin access paths and hunt for signs of device compromise.
Harden high-value endpoints
Prioritize BIOS/UEFI updates for executives, admins, and jump systems.
Enforce Secure Boot and full-disk encryption posture checks.
Prepare for breach-driven phishing
Increase monitoring for education-themed and identity-verification lures.
Brief customer-facing teams on expected impersonation tactics.
Holiday incidents aren’t advanced… they’re unattended.
If identity, edge access, and firmware posture are locked down now, attackers lose their easiest week of the year.
Most breaches succeed not because defenses failed… but because nobody was watching.
(P.S. Forward to your CISO / Add to Board Briefing.)
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