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- Market & Momentum - 08/25/2025
Market & Momentum - 08/25/2025
From AI red-team breakthroughs to fresh zero-day exploits, this week’s threat forecast shows offense and defense racing neck-and-neck. Here’s what to watch—and what to fix—before the gap closes.
J.W. Croley
August 25, 2025
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Attackers are optimizing for scale and speed.
Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) is pivoting toward managed service providers and VPN appliances, deepfake CEO scams are moving from rare to routine, and supply-chain maintainers like PyPI just slammed a loophole that let attackers hijack packages via dormant domains.
On top of it all, August’s Patch Tuesday dropped 100+ Microsoft fixes — so expect exploit kits to sweep for slow patchers.
Trend (forecast) | Impact (0–10) | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
AI-powered impersonation (voice/video phishing) | 9 | Deepfake voice lures tricking staff into urgent wire transfers & credential hand-offs |
RaaS targeting MSPs & VPNs | 9 | Akira and Lynx ransomware now pressure MSP estates; SonicWall SSL VPNs under scrutiny |
Patch Tuesday exploitation | 8 | 107 Microsoft CVEs including a public 0-day; Exchange/Teams in exploit kits soon |
Supply-chain resets & account takeovers | 7 | PyPI blocks “domain-resurrection” resets after package hijacks |
AI-scaled reconnaissance & credential harvesting | 7 | Automated scans hitting 36k/sec, fueling stuffing & stealth pivots |
Deepfake CEO scams — Finance teams in the U.S. report real losses as voice/video spoofs bypass traditional awareness training.
MSP ransomware campaigns — Akira and Lynx doubled their victim count by breaching service providers; SonicWall SSL VPNs appear under active probing.
Microsoft Patch Tuesday (August) — 107 CVEs patched, with a publicly disclosed zero-day; critical flaws across Exchange, Teams, and WSL2.
Supply-chain defense — PyPI closed a flaw that let attackers reset package maintainer accounts using expired domains.
AI-accelerated recon — Automated scans spiking to 36,000 per second mean defenders see less dwell time and more credential spray attempts.
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Impersonation moves mainstream: Deepfakes are no longer exotic — they’re in active financial fraud.
Upstream leverage: MSPs, registries, and VPNs provide wider blast radius than single victims.
Acceleration via AI: Reconnaissance timelines are collapsing thanks to automation.
Patch lag exploitation: Weaponization windows are shortening — patch velocity is now a KPI.
Registry reaction: PyPI’s fix highlights how attackers innovate against developer trust chains.
Deepfakes: Require out-of-band verification for payments/credentials; teach staff to distrust “boss on a call.”
MSP ransomware: Demand attestations from service providers on MFA, backups, and segmentation.
Microsoft CVEs: Publish a compliance dashboard this week; prioritize internet-facing Exchange & Teams.
Supply-chain resets: Rotate recovery emails; enforce MFA on PyPI/GitHub; audit publishing tokens.
AI-scaled recon: Rate-limit login attempts; detect impossible travel and MFA fatigue; throttle noisy scans.
PyPI’s fix against domain-resurrection resets is a rare bright spot! It’s proof that defenders can close doors faster than attackers open them.
Attackers innovate by scale; defenders win by speed. Treat velocity as your control surface.
J.W.
(P.S. Forward to your CISO / Add to Board Briefing.)
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